Trump Escalates Trade War: 25% Tariffs on Japan, South Korea and Others From August
U.S. President Donald Trump announced Monday that the U.S. will impose sharply higher tariffs on multiple trading partners, including Japan and South Korea, starting August 1, marking a new phase in the global trade war he launched earlier this year.
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UK House Prices Stabilize; Corporate Investment Shifts Toward Britain
UK house prices showed signs of stabilization in June, with Halifax data recording zero month-on-month growth (previous figure revised up to -0.3%) and annual gains edging down to 2.5%. While April’s stamp duty hike dampened activity—prices are slightly lower than late 2023—mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest since 2023. Halifax Mortgages Director Amanda Bladen noted wage growth is supporting market resilience, with two rate cuts expected this year likely to drive modest price recoveries in H2.
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UK Stocks Trade Sideways; Energy Sector Under Pressure
London’s stock markets saw mixed trading on July 7, with the FTSE 100 flat and the FTSE 250 mid-cap index edging up 0.2%, as focus remained on the U.S. delaying tariff implementation to August 1 and progress in trade talks.
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Japan's Real Wages See Steepest Drop in 20 Months, Straining Consumption Recovery
A core contradiction has emerged in Japan’s economy: inflation-adjusted real wages plummeted 2.9% year-on-year in May (following a -2.0% decline in April), marking the sharpest drop in 20 months and extending a five-month streak of contraction. This was driven by persistent inflation—running at 4% when excluding fresh food but including rent costs—outpacing nominal wage growth, which slowed drastically to 1.0% (to ¥300,000) from 2.0% in April, hitting a 14-month low.
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RBNZ Likely to Pause Rate Cuts This Week; Economic Outlook Faces Pressures
New Zealand’s Reserve Bank (RBNZ) is expected to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 3.25% on July 10, pausing its streak of six consecutive rate cuts since August 2024. Market expectations for a cut this week stand at just 15%, though most forecasts anticipate 25–50 basis points of easing by November. ANZ Bank holds a differing view, assigning a 40% probability of a cut and projecting cumulative 75 basis points of reductions by February 2025, bringing the OCR to 2.5%.
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Plummeting International Student Numbers in Australia Raise Labor Shortage Fears; RBA Rate Cut Imminent
Australia is grappling with a sharp decline in international students, triggering concerns over labor market gaps. As of April 2025, the total number of international students dropped to 794,000, a decrease of 300,000 from the end of 2024. New enrollments plummeted 13% year-on-year to 219,000, while visa applications fell by over 30%. This is largely attributed to successive policy tightenings: visa fees were hiked twice in a year (from A$710 to A$1,600, then to A$2,000); English proficiency and financial proof requirements were raised
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Canada's Job Market Strains; Employment Security Confidence Hits Over 1-Year Low
Canadians’ confidence in job security has dropped to a more than one-year low, with Nanos Research’s latest poll showing only 59.9% of respondents viewing their employment as "secure or relatively secure"—while over 30% expressed uncertainty, the highest level since 2023.
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German Industrial Orders Drop More Than Expected, Clouding Euro Zone Recovery
Germany’s industrial orders fell unexpectedly by 1.4% month-on-month in May, far exceeding the market’s projected 0.1% decline and ending a three-month recovery streak. Weak domestic demand emerged as the primary drag: domestic orders plummeted 7.8%, with the computer and electronics sector crashing 17.7%, while electrical equipment and basic metals industries also contracted.
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UK Construction PMI Rises to 6-Month High in June but Remains in Contraction
Britain’s construction sector showed mixed signals in June, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) edging up to 48.8—its highest level in six months—yet still lingering below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. A stark divide emerged within the industry:
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Japan’s Spring Wage Hikes Hit New High, but Real Purchasing Power Shrinks; U.S. Tariff Standoff Looms
Japan’s 2025 "shunto" (spring wage negotiations) concluded with average pay hikes reaching 5.25%—equivalent to ¥16,356 per month—marking the second consecutive year of 5%-plus increases. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) offered 4.65% raises (¥12,361 monthly), up 0.2 percentage points from 2024 but still lagging far behind large corporations. The Japanese Trade Union Confederation noted that while wage gains expanded, SMEs failing to hit the 5% threshold widened income disparities.
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New Zealand Household Savings Deteriorate Further; Housing Market Shows Uneven Recovery
New Zealand’s household savings situation continued to worsen in the first quarter of 2025, with Statistics New Zealand data showing savings falling to -NZ$1.6 billion (a NZ$392 million quarterly decline), marking the third consecutive quarter of negative savings. This was driven by household spending growth (+2.2% to NZ$62.2 billion) outpacing disposable income gains (+1.5% to NZ$60.6 billion).
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Australian Shares Edge Higher on Wall Street Record; RBA Rate Cut in Focus
Australian stocks rose modestly on Friday (July 5), buoyed by fresh record highs on Wall Street. The S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.17% to 8,610 in midday trade—less than 30 points from its all-time peak—while the All Ordinaries Index added 0.16% to 8,847.3. Despite stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data dampening hopes for a July Fed rate cut, markets reacted positively to signs of economic resilience.
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German Expert Panel Splits on Debt Brake Reform, Three Proposals to Be Submitted
Multiple media outlets report that the expert commission set up by Germany’s federal government to reform the constitutional debt brake has failed to reach a unified agreement. The panel plans to submit three distinct reform blueprints to Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner next week. The coalition government formed by the Christian Democratic Union and the Social Democratic Party had hoped the experts would deliver a unified solution to the divisive issue, yet the outcome fell short of expectations. Most panel members agree that curbing structural deficits is reasonable in principle
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One in Four French Households Live in Severely Under-Occupied Homes: Insee Study
A study released by France’s National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (l'Insee) on Tuesday, July 8, reveals that a quarter of French households reside in severely under-occupied homes—defined as having at least three more rooms than actually needed. This phenomenon affects 7.6 million primary residences, 93% of which are single-family houses, with three-quarters of these under-occupied homes exceeding 100 square meters in size.
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